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Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season/Washi
27W.WASHI 95W.INVEST THIS ONE is the one we need to watch! Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:29,12/13/2011 TCFA issued. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 03:30,12/13/2011 Now td 27Allanjeffs 12:10, December 13, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression 27W It's here. Cyclone10 Talk Hurricane 13:10,12/13/2011 : This wave is starting to remind me of the precursor of 2006's Typhoon Durian a little bit. While I don't think this storm will get that strong, it still could be a pretty nasty storm for the Philippines in the future. Durian was the costliest typhoon in the history of the Archapelago, with over 13 billion dollars in damage, and it was also the deadliest typhoon to hit the Philippines in a very long time. This storm would become Washi if it does become named, and its PAGASA name would be'' Sendong''. Hopefully they won't get hit too hard, but we already have the record number of PAGASA retirees this season. This could easily be our next one. Ryan1000 14:22, December 13, 2011 (UTC) :: After looking at the visible satillite images, the LLCC is a bit to the right of the thunderstorms.Cyclone10 00:14, December 14, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm 27W Upgraded.Cyclone10 13:11, December 14, 2011 (UTC) : According to latest JMA forecasts this probably would be named after midnight UTC tonight. I am curious what this thing will be doing after it crossed the Philippines. There are three interesting factors. First, the waters in the South China Sea east of Ho Tschi Minh City are already quite cool what could lead to a quick extratropical transition. The other thing is wether it will only brush the coast of the Southern Vietnam or if it will landfall there. However, if the system is managing to get in the Gulf of Thailand, where SSTs still support tropical development, it might cross over the Isthmus of Kra and go Indic. -- 13:39, December 14, 2011 (UTC) : So according to the forecast track this system would pass directly over palau and arrive to central southern phillippines as a hurricane we would see if that happens Allanjeffs 18:30, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :: I think this storm will hit the Philippines as a minimal typhoon and not much else will come from it. 88, I don't think this storm (Washi) will head that far south. This storm is more likely to head farther north and either die out or make a second landfall as a weak storm. However, I don't see Washi becoming a re-Forrest(1992), or re-Gay(1989). It'll probrably just hit the Philippines as a C1 and die out after that. Even so, NIO has been a wasteland in the entire year. We had one storm in the Arabian Sea and none in the Bay of Bengal, which is the first time that ever happened. If, by chance, this storm does survive into the North Indian Ocean, it won't last long there either because wind shear is too hostile. The Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season has pretty much drawn to a close, and the Shem is warming up as we speak. Hopefully we won't see a Yasi in this year's SHem season though! Ryan1000 21:01, December 14, 2011 (UTC) :: OFF Topic but we are not going to open the betting for the last report for a name system of 2011 because it says open until january 2012 and there is a possibility that all the reports are going to be done when we reach that date Allanjeffs 22:28, December 14, 2011 (UTC) ::: Now named Sendong.Cyclone10 03:10, December 15, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Washi Now Washi. 13R. '' 07:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC) That took a long time.Cyclone10 13:04, December 15, 2011 (UTC) No longer to be forecast to be a typhoon.Cyclone10 13:11, December 15, 2011 (UTC) : As I said, it probrably won't be a really bad storm. @Allan: What do you mean? We still have ten TCR's that aren't yet issued in ATL, including Irene and Lee, the two costliest storms of the season, and we have 6 left in EPac, including Jova. It's highly unlikely we will have all of the TCR's issued in the next two weeks. ''Ryan1000 14:38, December 15, 2011 (UTC) : Now expected to make landfall near Thailand/Malaysia border in the next couple of days. Cyclone10 20:43, December 15, 2011 (UTC) : It should also hit the Philippines. Andrew444TalkBlog 22:02, December 15, 2011 (UTC) : In truly Ryan they are left now that Lee is out we just need the reports from the remaining 9 and supposedly base by NHC page they would release another one tomorrow that i would say Irene base on their post and is not impossible that the NHC finish their reports to the time we reach January Allanjeffs 23:11, December 15, 2011 (UTC) :: Now it has made landfall.Cyclone10 13:10, December 16, 2011 (UTC) ::: Washi probrably won't be much of a hassle for the folks there, but it will cause some impacts. And Allan, I still don't think all of the TCR's will be released before next year begins. Irene was a very devastating storm and getting all of the final damage figures and fatality figures will take quite a long time to do, not to mention it will take much longer to adjust its intensity and best track positioning, if need be. I would be very surprised if Irene's TCR comes out tomorrow. I personally am not expecting Irene's TCR to be issued until spring of next year, and we will more than likely have at least 5 or 6 left by January 2011. Getting 9 TCR's out in just two weeks is no easy task, and we will most likely have more than one left by January 2011. I would not be surprised if TD 10's or Jose's TCR's come out before January, but the others will take a while to do. Ryan1000 14:58, December 16, 2011 (UTC) ::::: You spoke a bit too soon, Ryan. Irene's TCR is finished. Washi looks good even after landfall.Cyclone10 21:56, December 16, 2011 (UTC) : Told you Ryan that Irene will be out today i ask for Sean and Katia but they told me that they are going vacations and the report will be up in january Jose is the next to be out for ehat i readAllanjeffs 22:07, December 16, 2011 (UTC) : 40 deaths already for Washi.Cyclone10 05:01, December 17, 2011 (UTC) : At least 180 deaths because of Washi in the Phillipines Allanjeffs 14:25, December 17, 2011 (UTC) :: Wow, I didn't expect Washi to be this bad for the folks down there. I think we have yet another PAGASA name kicked off the list. @Allan: I have a new idea. From now on, we will make the last betting pool open in December of the same year. I have opened the last section, and I think that opening it in December of the same year would save time because in El Nino years like 2006 or 2009, all of them might come out before January. I still think we will have a few left by next year, but we'll see. 2009 had only Ida left by the time January 2010 begun. I think EPac should probrably be opened too, in case Jova is the only one left. I didn't expect Irene to be that quick to come out, and I'm very surprised it was shortened to being a major hurricane for only two advisories... That really killed her ACE, as did with Lee. Ryan1000 15:09, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::: Now 256 deaths....Washi is starting to become a good retiree.Cyclone10 15:18, December 17, 2011 (UTC) :::: Sendong has been retired.Cyclone10 15:21, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::: The deadliest non-hurricane in Philippino history was TS Thelma of 1991, which killed 6,000+ people in the Philippines. I don't think Washi will be that deadly, but wow. I didn't expect it to be that bad. BTW, Cyclone10, I just updated the ATL and EPac betting pools. If you wish to bet on which storm's TCR will come out last in ATL or EPac, feel free to do so. Ryan1000 15:26, December 17, 2011 (UTC) :::::: NOW 436 DEATHS.Cyclone10 15:39, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::::: This thing is starting to remind me of Hanna and Gordon in ATL. It's killing people by the hundreds and it's not stopping either. I feel really sorry for the folks over there, but all I can hope for is it doesn't get any bigger than where it is now. Washi is Washi-ng them away, and I really don't want to see the damage either, because it's going to be pretty big, I fear. This thing is already the worst storm to hit the Philippines since Typhoon Fengshen of 2008 killed about 1,200 people there, 600 of which came when a ship sunk near Manila. Ryan1000 15:50, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::::: This storm should be RETIRE there is no excuse at least Sendong is out I will be very piss if Washi is not out is inexcusable with all the death it has cause but with the recent storms that have been deadly and not retire there is always a possibility btw do someone know the meaning of Washi i am to lazy to look for it thanks Allanjeffs 22:04, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Washi won't be retired because all of the damage is in the Philippines. 13R. '' 23:44, December 17, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::Fengshen was retire and most of its damage was in the phillippinesAllanjeffs 00:16, December 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::Nope, only its PAGASA name was retired. But Thelma was retired with most damage in the Philippines.Cyclone10 00:33, December 18, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::I'm surprised no one mentioned this, but, Washi is the deadliest worldwide cyclone for 2011. And Allan, ''Washi ''means "Eagle" in Japanese. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:18, December 18, 2011 (UTC) This season has been a little below normal with 20 storms, but WPac can be a nasty basin at times. While the death toll of Washi or other WPac storms fails in comparison to the goliaths of the North Indian Ocean, it still is a very high number and I feel so sorry for the folks down there. Even so, just because the Philippines retire a PAGASA name doesn't mean they will also retire the JMA name. The Philipines see the highest number of tropical cyclone landfalls worldwide, with an average of 6-7 every year. I mentioned earlier the record number of landfalls was 19 in 1993, and only one storm made landfall in 1958. While 2011 was not the worst season in Philipino history, it was notable in how many different bad storms have hit them this year. ''Ryan1000 02:10, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Update: 479 deaths. Sendong (Washi) is the deadliest storm to have its name retired since Frank (Fengshen) in 2008. Also, its forecasted to take a turn to the southwest. Malaysia/Southern Vietnam may get a December surprise. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:33, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Amazing five Pagasa names retire Bebeng,Juaning,Mina,Pedring,And Sendong poor Phillippines they recieve a huge hit from this storms i feel sorry for them and btw Mina is my favorite name from all of them Allanjeffs 06:23, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Although Washi may not be very strong when it hits the Malaysian Peninsula, Harriet of 1962 wasn't very strong either and it killed hundreds of people there. The preparations made in the Philippines were extensive, but not everyone heeded the warnings because they didn't think it was going to be that bad due to it's strength, but the flash floods and mudslides caught them off guard and Washi killed far more people than expected. Ryan1000 12:46, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Now 589 deaths!!! This makes Washi the 13th deadliest typhoon to have its name retired. Currently, its expected to hit Malaysia. Andrew444TalkBlog 13:39, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Typhoon? It was only a tropical storm! But still, 589 deaths is a lot. 13R. '' 14:31, December 18, 2011 (UTC) 334 deaths from Washi. ''13R. '' 15:01, December 18, 2011 (UTC) : CNN reports 652 deaths.Cyclone10 16:05, December 18, 2011 (UTC) : .they are 652 deaths confirm and 808 missings the previous 15 deadly storms of 2011 have kill in combine 532 meaning that Washi has kill more people than 15 storms together Amazing. Allanjeffs 16:37, December 18, 2011 (UTC) :: Is CNN more reliable than the Philippines National Disaster Council? No. ''13R. '' 16:38, December 18, 2011 (UTC) : I know that, but it's still a news source.Cyclone10 17:22, December 18, 2011 (UTC) :: Man, Washi has been killing people left and right and it's still not done with us. It could head onto southern Vietnam and later the Malaysian peninsula before it says it's goodbyes. This thing is already the deadliest cyclone worldwide in 2011 and it has the potential to be deadlier than every other cyclone recorded worldwide this year combined, if it already hasn't done so. God, I hope this thing stops soon. Washi was bad enough already, but I fear this could be only the beginning with this storm... ''Ryan1000 20:25, December 18, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Washi (continued) Just so we can hit the edit button easier...Anyway, if those 652 deaths are correct, there should be NO excuse as why it shouldn't go, as it has killed more people than any other retired JMA name except Bilis, Durian, and Ketsana. Andrew444TalkBlog 01:00, December 19, 2011 (UTC) I don`t think they are correct i think they are going to be more deaths, and tropical storm Thelma also killed more than Washi Allanjeffs 01:52, December 19, 2011 (UTC) This storm's going to the archive...900 people are still missing in the storm.Cyclone10 02:07, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Yeah, it would be the 4th deadliest JMA retiree thus far. Allan, Thelma was indeed retired, but keep in mind storms before 2000 were retired by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. Names during and after 2000 were retired by JMA. It could still be worse, but even if it ends here, there's still no excuse for Washi to be on the list again. 850, possibly up to 2,000, deaths is going to gurantee retirement here. Ryan1000 04:20, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Depression Washi Now down to a depression, thankfully. 13R. '' 12:53, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Doesn't look too good on the satellite.Cyclone10 13:17, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Remnants of Washi Now gone... but I think the remnants will cause more damage. ''13R. '' 16:56, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Well, I hope it's down and out now. I don't want to see any more destruction come from this horrific storm. ''Ryan1000 18:13, December 19, 2011 (UTC) 972 deaths. 13R. ' 19:28, December 19, 2011 (UTC) Now Washi is the most deadliest water storm event of 2011 surpassing the flash floods of Brazil also i was going to write my retirement for Western pacific but my brother erase it and is to long to write again i just say Washi Because of Phillippines Talas because of Japan and maybe Nesat for damage in Phillipines but I don`t know Allanjeffs 20:00, December 19, 2011 (UTC) :::It's nice to see that Washi is gone. Yqt1001 03:56, December 20, 2011 (UTC) :::1,000 deaths I feel sorry for them that this christmas some would have loose family and things that are important for them Allanjeffs 14:58, December 20, 2011 (UTC) Unfortunately, there is now a disease going around the affected areas in the Philippines... there could be a lot more deaths. —13R. '' 00:22, December 21, 2011 (UTC) : Source please.Cyclone10 00:28, December 21, 2011 (UTC) :: Look it up yourself. —13R. ''' 00:47, December 21, 2011 (UTC) Best track out for Washi. Upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm. —''12R. '' 18:20, January 18, 2012 (UTC) Washi has been retired. —''12R. '' 12:34, February 23, 2012 (UTC)